2011 HiMCM A题特等奖学生论文下载3170

2011 HiMCM A题特等奖学生论文下载3170

 

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论文摘要如下：

14th Annual High School Mathematical Contest in Modeling (HiMCM) Summary Sheet (Please attach a copy of this page to each copy of your Solution Paper.)

Team Control Number: 3170 Problem Chosen: A

Please type a summary of your results on this page. Please remember not to include the name of your school, advisor, or team members on this page.

After mourning the retirement of the final U.S. Space Shuttle, NASA has dried their tears and enlisted our help to create a ten year plan complete with costs, maintenance, and flight schedules to maintain the International Space Station (ISS). In order to model this program in a realistic manner, we researched and established a variety of assumptions and parameters. We then set ourselves specific goals to include in our plan. Along with providing NASA with a detailed budget plan, payload, and flight schedule, we took it a step further to predict the total cost our plan will entail.

In order to provide the most cost-effective maintenance plan, we first determined NASA’s budget. Using a linear regression graph, we projected NASA’s future ISS Budgets until 2020, the last year of our ten year plan. Although the budget was not included in the equation itself, we took it into careful consideration when reallocating our funds and made sure the total cost of our plan did not exceed this budget.

Our model is divided into two sections. In the years 2011 to 2017, NASA will depend on foreign nations and private companies to provide U.S. astronauts and cargo with transportation to the ISS. Our plan entails a preexisting contract between NASA and two corporations that offer Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS), privately built unmanned spacecrafts that supply the ISS with cargo. The model also includes the purchase of Russian spacecraft transportation services for U.S. astronauts. In these years we also propose NASA to begin using funds to build a multipurpose crew vehicle that will be fully operational by 2017. This spacecraft, dubbed Ophiucus, will be a vessel that can be flown both manned and unmanned. It will render NASA and the U.S. government free from foreign and commercial dependence with regard to space travel. Since NASA will no longer have to purchase transportation through external resources, Ophiucus will also provide relief from this financial burden.

After formulating the plan itself, we inserted a series of estimates into our multi-variable model to find a predicted cost for all ten years. Our estimated total cost falls below the projected ISS budget. Our model exhibits robustness because variations to the parameters do not exhibit large changes to the overall result. We performed sensitivity analyses on all our parameters collectively to further ensure that our cost will not surpass our projected budget, and determined that our model was resistant to variability. Finally, we created a detailed flight schedule including the launch days of all projected missions in the next ten years

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