2012 HiMCM A题特等奖学生论文下载3697

2012 HiMCM A题特等奖学生论文下载3697

 

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论文摘要如下：

Letter to Commissioner of the Department of Wildlife

November 11, 2012

 

Dear Commissioner of the Department of Wildlife,

 

As environmentalists ourselves, we enjoyed the opportunity to investigate the efficacy of elk reintroduction in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and determine how to maximize the population growth of elk.

 

We are pleased to report that the Manitoban elk population in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park will indeed survive. Our mathematical model is broken down into five smaller variables: birth rate, predation, sickness, accidents/unknown deaths, and poaching. The equation for each variable was calculated separately with statistical analysis based on both the data provided and outside research. When combined, all the variables come together in one overarching model for population growth. Over the past ten years, elk population has increased from the original 25 to today’s 140. We predict that in the next five hundred years, elk population will drastically increase. Since we calculated the current carrying capacity of the national park to be 1900 elk, numbers will level out at around 1900 elk.

 

In order to improve the survival of the elk population, we then analyzed the effects of altering each variable and devised a method to increase the carrying capacity of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. We recommend that three preventative measures be taken: to reduce sickness, reintroduce elk at intervals, and reduce the number of accidents that occur. First, areas where the risk of exposure to parasitic disease is high, especially those located solely in the East that the Manitoban elk are vulnerable to, should be fenced off. Second, to reduce inbreeding and increase the birth rate, new elk from the West should be introduced periodically. Third, we recommend increasing visitor awareness by including a cautionary paragraph in brochures and posting this information in visitor centers.

Again, we appreciate this opportunity and hope that you are able to follow our recommendations in order to increase the number of elk in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. If so, we fully expect a thriving, permanent elk population in the next 500 years.

 

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