2012 HiMCM A题特等奖学生论文下载3797

2012 HiMCM A题特等奖学生论文下载3797

 

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论文摘要如下：

 

Summary

Prior to European colonization of America, biodiversity, more specifically the native elk population, was far greater than the degree it is now. Ecologists planned to introduce Manitoba Elk, indigenous to the Western U.S. and Canadian prairie, into the Great Smoky Mountain National Park of the East coast in order to revitalize eradicated elk populations and stimulate biodiversity. We were charged to create a model predicting population dynamics of the previously introduced Manitoba elk and to develop a feasible plan for maintaining a stable population with minimal risk of endangerment.

In order to account for factors which determine survival rate and population changes, our team used a Density-dependent or Logistic model. To determine the carrying capacity of an environment we created a comprehensive equation based on the minimum acreage required for an individual elk’s survival. Ruling out the less significant factors such as innate characteristics of Manitoba elk, discrepancies in abiotic environmental factors, variations in types of food, possible TB and CWD transmission, and changes due to migration for greater emphasis rather on factors including changes in population over a given period of time, presence of other competitors for limited resources, and presence of predators in contribution to mortality rate to determine our Logistic models.

We then tested our model with legitimate research data on the previously recorded elk population dynamics in GSMNP over a 10 year period (2001-2011). Using this data and our own analysis we were able to establish birth and death rates for the introduced elk population and thus project the future survivability and sustainability of this population. Incorporating further constants including carrying capacity, initial population, and reproductive potential we were able to create a comprehensive model for the population of the elk within the GSMNP.

Because the current population of the elk in the GSMNP is capable of surviving without further human intervention, we decided that no additional populations of elk need to be introduced over time to maintain its maximum population. Our plan to increase the population of the elk would be to allow the elk to continue to propagate naturally without risks of endangerment. Thus, we proposed implementing a number of reinforcement measures within the National Park, including prohibiting poaching indefinitely and monitoring when the population is at risk so that park ecologists could plan to alter the resources available or reduce interspecies competition based on our additional plans.

 

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