2014 HiMCM B题特等奖学生论文下载4637

2014 HiMCM B题特等奖学生论文下载4637

 

下载方式见文末

 

论文摘要如下：

1. Summary
Faced with the challenge analyzing an unknown disease and determining appropriate actions, our team developed a model to determine the behavior of the disease and simulate its spread in the village. To add accuracy to our model, given relatively little information, we ran the model countless times with different parameters in an attempt to generalize the disease’s behavior.

 

We first looked toward the SIR model as the foundation of our simulation. We split the people of the village into types: Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, as well as Dead. We also accounted for the potential latent period of infection. Next we looked at the Rumor Spreading Model for insight. We had assumed the disease was spread through human interaction rather than the use of vectors or other means. Therefore, we compared the spreading of a rumor to the spreading of a disease, as both require human interaction and involve spreaders and receivers. We manipulated the formula of rumor spreading to fit our model of the spreading of infection, and determined the probability of a particular infected person infecting a susceptible person.

 

From these two models, we coded using Java our own model that simulated the spread of infection. We used the given values of infected and susceptible to start with and allowed the members of the village to interact each day. However, since we did not know many values crucial to determining the behavior of spread, we set them as modifiable variables, seeing what would happen under different assumed conditions. We ran this program until the number of infected people reached 0; in other words, the disease is exterminated.

 

We analyzed the data we received to classify the type and severity of the disease, and whether or not the epidemic was contained. We concluded that this disease followed the behavior of a point source outbreak, and the epidemic was quickly contained. From further analysis of our data, we also devised recommendations to prevent the spread of this disease: namely, preventing contact with infected individuals as well as preventing contact between this village and any other village.

 

When more information was learned about the particular disease, we were able to create a more accurate model. We were also able to take into account different situations-including the spread of the disease to other municipalities. However, we have faith that the nature of the disease and the consideration of our recommendations will prevent the continued spread of this dangerous disease.

 

 

2014 HiMCM特等奖论文完整版 下载链接