双语|2018应投资什么？a great year of economic opportunity for Australia?

前言 澳洲财长Scott Morrison相信，过去一年澳大利亚创纪录的就业增长将对经济产生影响，并最终带来薪资水平的提高，这一切对经济整体而言是至关重要的。

对于全球经济来说，道理的确如此，但是对于澳洲来说，特别是在与中国关系存在不确定因素的情况下，每一次只要出现政治危机，澳洲的贸易都会受到创伤。

澳洲与美国的关系现在不太可能以有利于澳大利亚贸易的情况发展，与脱欧的英国以及和欧盟的关系也不太可能在短期内显示出多大的进步。

与印度、非洲和南美洲的关系也同样不确定。

预计中东地区将保持稳定。

下个月，东盟将在悉尼举行一次特别峰会，但在此我们仍很难找到可以帮助在今年实现贸易增长的确凿事实。

只要澳元保持竞争力，劳动力价格保持稳定，旅游业是最大的希望

澳洲财长很高兴地表示，每天都有超过1100个工作岗位被创造出来，其中包括超过30万份全职工作。

这个记录仍然保持翻滚：这是40年来最强记录的一年，也是拥有最强劲全职工作增长记录的一年，还是历年来拥有最长时间连续每月就业增长的一年。

这很好，但我们在回顾过去的时候，前面的道路就看得不那么清晰了。

摆在面前的主要障碍似乎是，只有达成了减税，有了足够的资金流入消费经济，才能提振收入。

最近的利润增长在很多情况下都不是基于生产力的，而是通过降低产出的效率来实现的，实际上是通过缩减供给以推动更高的价格，电力产业就是一个很好的例子。

哪些行业就业率激增？

新增的就业机会多数都在小企业或者政府行政部门。

那么，这样的增长会持续多久则是下一个人们想问的问题了。

就业市场对人才的持续需求将会对行业的薪资水平带来上升影响。

在医疗保健和教育等领域，在过去几年里，就业增长相当强劲，工资增长速度高于全国平均水平。

从2017年起直至2017年11月，医疗保健行业创造了逾10万个就业岗位，该行业的薪资增幅为2.7%，而全国平均水平为2%，这并不令人意外。

劳动力市场的供给和需求是否恢复正常?

很明显，服务行业也复制了同样的模式，用于衡量就业人数情况的AIG服务业指数(Service Index)，达到了自2004年12月以来的最高水平。

据报道，该行业内强劲的劳动力需求正导致专业领域出现技能短缺，这加大了工资增长的压力。

今年1月，招聘广告跃升6.2%，较去年同期增长13.8%。

这是自2011年4月以来，招聘广告投放频率最高的一次，也是自2011年以来的最佳开局之年。

同样，NAB的季度商业调查显示，就业预期指数已升至近10年来的最高水平。

政府耗资11亿澳元的国家创新和科学议程(NISA)也在促进竞争，24项措施中有19项已经实施。

NISA是否成为2018经济助推力？

政府已经为NISA项目投入了超过7亿澳元作为创新基金，投资给那些正忙于创建下一代技术和创新突破的公司，比如，通过旨在将我们的研究成果商业化的CSIRO创新基金，为Morse Micro公司进行投资，以建设下一代的无线芯片。

在硅量子计算领域的投资则是支持了硅量子计算技术的发展和商业化。

另外还有通过CSIRO的7500万澳元投资，帮助Data61寻找能够让澳大利亚人利用数据革命的机会，并向聪明的中小企业提供资金，帮助他们能够将其创新的想法成果推向市场。

对天使投资者和风险投资家的税收激励措施最近得到了加强，作为NISA计划的一部分，政府将允许创新的金融服务企业能够获得获取资金的机会，以获得启动资金。

听起来似乎都很好，但我们仍很难确定2018年这一切能否成功。

那么，究竟应该如何做投资呢？在利率上升或双降的情况下，巩固偿还债务，并进行高杠杆投资吗?

在最近的股市调整和市场与实际潜在经济增长脱钩的情况下，人们似乎对资本保护资产类别投资重拾兴趣。

『原文』2018 a great year of economic opportunity for Australia, what’s different now?

The Treasurer Scott Morrison believes it is of critical importance last year’s record growth in jobs will impact the economy by eventually working its way through to increases in wages.

Looking at the world economy this may well be the case, however for Australia here is the uncertainty in its relationship with China, where trade seems to suffer each time a political crisis develops.

The USA relationship is unlikely to increase in trade terms in Australia’s favour, Brexit and the EU relationship are equally unlikely to show much growth in the short term.

India, Africa and South America are just as uncertain.

The middle east is expected to remain steady.

ASEAN will have a special Summit in Sydney mid next month, but here too it is difficult to find hard facts that will help grow trade substantially this year.

Tourism is a great hope, provided the Australian dollar stays competitive and labour rates remain stable.

The Treasurer loves to claim more than 1,100 jobs are being created every single day, including more than 300,000 of those jobs full-time over the previous reporting period.

The records keep tumbling: the strongest calendar year results in over 40 years, the strongest calendar year growth in full-time jobs on record, the equal longest run of consecutive monthly jobs growth in history.

This is nice, but we are looking in the rear-view mirror, looking at the road ahead it is less clear.

The main obstacles in front seem to be if the tax cuts eventuate and enough money flows into the consumer economy to give revenues a lift.

Recent profit increases have in many cases not been productivity based but came about through higher efficiencies with lower output, in effect squizzing supply to force higher prices, electricity is a good example here.

Where are these jobs created?

Many are in small business and many are in government administration as well.

How long lasting these last is the next logical question?

Increasing demand for human resources in the jobs market will see upward pressure, once again, placed on wages.

In sectors such as healthcare and education, where jobs growth has been considerably strengthened over the past few years, wages are growing faster than the national average.

More than 100,000 jobs were created in the healthcare sector through the year 2017 to November, so it shouldn’t come as any surprise that wages in the sector are growing at 2.7 percent, compared to the national average of 2 percent.

Is normal transmission on supply and demand in the labour market being restored?

The same pattern is apparently replicated in the services sector, with the AIG Performance of Service Index measure of employment accelerating to its highest level since December 2004.

This strong labour demand within the sector is reportedly leaving specialised fields with skill shortages, increasing the pressure on wage growth.

Job ads jumped 6.

2 percent in January to be 13.

8 percent higher over the past year 2017.

This is the highest level of job ads since April 2011 and the best start to a calendar year since 2011.

Similarly, the NAB Quarterly business survey showed that the employment expectations subindex has risen to its highest level in almost a decade.

Competition is also being fostered through the Government’s $1.1 billion National Innovation and Science Agenda (NISA), with 19 of the 24 measures having been implemented.

NISA an economic factor in 2018?

NISA has poured more than $700 million into innovation funds that are investing in companies that are busy creating the next generation of technology and innovation breakthroughs like investment in Morse Micro to build the next generation of Wi-Fi chip,

through the CSIRO Innovation Fund which aims to commercialise our research.

Investment in Silicon Quantum Computing to support the development and commercialisation, as the name suggests, of silicon quantum computing technology.

The $75 million investment through the CSIRO to help Data61 look for opportunities for Australians to capitalise on the data revolution, and grants to smart SMEs to harness innovative ideas and help them take it to the market.

As part of the broader NISA agenda, legislated tax incentives for angel investors and venture capitalists have been recently enhanced by allowing innovative financial service businesses to access these sources of funding, to get innovative start-ups running.

All well and good but hardly a recipe for the certainty of success in 2018.

So, what is one supposed to do with investment dollars? Consolidate pay back debt in the face of rising interest rates or double down and invest more with leverage?

Give the recent stock market correction and the markets decoupling from the real underlying economic growth we seem to be back to looking at capital protected asset classes.

How do you see it, what investments would you make for 2018?

A.    Real Estate

B.    Cash

C.    Shares

D.    Cryptocurrencies

E.    Other

作者Author：Roger Hausmann - Federal Parliamentary Journalist澳洲联邦记者本文翻译Translator：千千Coco本文编辑Editor：千千Coco