2001 11月HiMCM数模竞赛A题

2001 11月HiMCM数模学术活动A题

Problem A: Adolescent Pregnancy

You are working temporarily for the Department of Health and Environmental Control. The director is concerned about the issue of teenage pregnancy in their region.

You have decided that your team will analyze the situation and determine if it is really a problem in this region. You gather the following 2000 data.

County	Age 10-14 Pregnant	Age 15-17 Pregnant	Age 18- 19 Pregnant	10-14 births	15-17 births	18-19 births	10-14 births-unmarried	15-17 birth- unmarried	18-19 births-unmarried
1	29	350	571	17	281	437	16	164	193
2	24	303	567	13	206	466	13	151	233
3	40	422	691	29	307	546	28	251	366
4	21	201	356	18	184	326	15	137	180
5	16	156	357	11	109	254	10	99	161
6	44	523	970	33	442	803	32	293	396
7	17	263	434	9	201	345	7	113	168
8	23	330	427	16	256	444	14	160	210
9	13	123	221	10	113	199	9	78	106
10	41	467	950	24	446	686	22	279	331
11	28	421	713	18	343	615	15	219	328
12	9	179	311	8	145	261	7	114	162

1998

Age          Pregnancies      Births

10-14               320                  231

15-17               4041                3222

18-19               6387                5164

1999

Age             Pregnancies      Births

10-14               309                  208

15-17               3882                3048

18-19               6714                5391

Build a mathematical model and use it to determine if there is a problem or not. Prepare an article for the newspaper that highlights your result in a novel mathematical relationship or comparison that will capture the attention of the youth.