2017英特尔ISEF获奖作品摘要 行为与社会科学 Intel Finalist Abstract Behavioral and Social Sciences

获奖作品基本信息

年份	2017
学科	行为与社会科学 Behavioral and Social Sciences
国家/州	United State of America

获奖作品名称

Impact of Carbon Tax Policies on the Global Agricultural Economy: A Computational Spatial Partial Equilibrium Modeling Approach

获奖作品摘要

Developed amid the Paris Agreement controversy, this spatial equilibrium model projects the environmental and economic impacts of carbon tax policies from 2012 to 2050. Simulating the Climate Protection and Justice Act of 2015 (CPJA) as an example, the model projects the impacts of this proposed carbon tax on the global agricultural market under the following scenarios: i) Status Quo, with no country adopting the CPJA, ii) CPJA Developed, adopted by only major developed countries, and iii) CPJA World, adopted by all countries. 

The sector model utilizes linear programming to optimize an objective function (total social welfare) subject to multiple sets of constraints across 11 commodities and 17 countries/regions. Implemented with an interior point convex quadratic solver (BPMPD) and Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (free/home software), the model in the static phase completes a comparative analysis of the scenarios’ trade-offs; in the dynamic phase, it generates iterative projections of their impacts. The model’s versatility also permits changes in policy to be efficiently reflected and its constraints and objectives to be customized.

Validated by historical data with up to 83% accuracy, the results show that under CPJA Developed, although developing countries suffer potential carbon leakage and developed countries drop in production and exports, 5.5 billion tons of carbon are reduced. Under CPJA World, all countries experience a share of the rising prices and decreased trade/production while 15.5 billion tons of carbon are reduced. Thus, with global cooperation, the world will benefit environmentally and more evenly share the economic burden.

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ISEF 简介

英特尔国际科学与工程大奖赛，简称 "ISEF"，由美国 Society for Science and the Public（科学和公共服务协会）主办，英特尔公司冠名赞助，是全球规模最大、等级最高的中学生的科研科创赛事。ISEF 的学术活动学科包括了所有数学、自然科学、工程的全部领域和部分社会科学。ISEF 素有全球青少年科学学术活动的“世界杯”之美誉，旨在鼓励学生团队协作，开拓创新，长期专一深入地研究自己感兴趣的课题。

学科简介：行为与社会科学 Behavioral and Social Sciences

The science or study of the thought processes and behavior of humans and other animals in their interactions with the environment studied through observational and experimental methods.

Subcategories:

Clinical and Developmental Psychology (CLN): The study and treatment of emotional or behavioral disorders. Developmental psychology is concerned with the study of progressive behavioral changes in an individual from birth until death.

Cognitive Psychology (COG): The study of cognition, the mental processes that underlie behavior, including thinking, deciding, reasoning, and to some extent motivation and emotion.

Neuroscience (NEU): Studies of the neural basis of cognitive processes, including learning and memory, language and thought, perception, attention, and affect. It investigates the human brain, from the functional organization of large scale cerebral systems to microscopic neurochemical processes.

Physiological Psychology (PHY): The study of the biological and physiological basis of behavior. This field studies the neural mechanisms of perception and behavior through direct manipulation of the brain in controlled experiments.

Sociology and Social Psychology (SOC): The study of human social behavior, especially the study of the origins, organization, institutions, and development of human society. Sociology is concerned with all group activities-economic, social, political, and religious.

Other (OTH): Studies that cannot be assigned to one of the above subcategories. If the project involves multiple subcategories, the principal subcategory should be chosen instead of Other.

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