2015英特尔ISEF获奖作品摘要 地球与环境科学 Intel Finalist Abstract Earth and Environmental Sciences

获奖作品基本信息

年份	2015
学科	地球与环境科学 Earth and Environmental Sciences
国家/州	United States of America

获奖作品名称

Modeling and Analyzing Melting Arctic Sea Ice with Percolation Theory

获奖作品摘要

Extreme losses in summer Arctic sea ice pack, a leading indicator of climate change, have led to the need for significant revisions of global climate models. Part of the efforts to improve these models is an increased emphasis on sea ice albedo (reflectance), which is closely related to the formation of melt ponds on the sea ice. This project investigates the novel use of percolation theory to model melt pond formation. Innovative methods were implemented to calculate the percolation probability as a function of p, the probability of an edge being open. The results were analyzed to determine the critical threshold value pc, which was compared with the known value of 0.50 for a two dimensional square lattice. This model was then adapted to determine the critical area threshold for melt ponds on sea ice as 0.4845, which had not been numerically determined previously. This threshold allows for simple detection of percolation, and thus also changes in the albedo and the melting rate of the sea ice. The calculation of this parameter is a first step to creating more dynamic models for the growth and disappearance of melt ponds over time.

Keywords: Climate Change, Sea Ice Albedo, Graph Theory, Composite Materials Theory, Percolation Thresholds, Recursion, Weighted Sparse Matrices

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ISEF 简介

英特尔国际科学与工程大奖赛，简称 "ISEF"，由美国 Society for Science and the Public（科学和公共服务协会）主办，英特尔公司冠名赞助，是全球规模最大、等级最高的中学生的科研科创赛事。ISEF 的学术活动学科包括了所有数学、自然科学、工程的全部领域和部分社会科学。ISEF 素有全球青少年科学学术活动的“世界杯”之美誉，旨在鼓励学生团队协作，开拓创新，长期专一深入地研究自己感兴趣的课题。

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英特尔 ISEF 学术活动详细介绍

英特尔 ISEF 全程指导方案

· 数学 · 物理 · 化学 · 生物 · 计算机 · 工程 ·

学科简介：地球与环境科学

Category: Earth and Environmental Sciences

Studies of the environment and its effect on organisms/systems, including investigations of biological processes such as growth and life span, as well as studies of Earth systems and their evolution.

Subcategories:

Atmospheric Science (AIR): The study of the Earth's atmosphere, its processes, the effects other systems have on the atmosphere, and the effects of the atmosphere on these other systems as well as meteorological investigations. Further investigation in this field relates to atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric physics, atmospheric changes (both long and short-term) that define average climates and their change over time, and upper layers of the atmosphere, where dissociation and ionization are important.

Climate Science (CLI): Studies of Earth’s climate, particularly evidential study of climate change over a period of time.  This field studies long-term trends in average meteorological conditions and changes in these averaged conditions from season to season, year to year, decade to decade.

Environmental Effects on Ecosystems (ECS): Studies of the impact of environmental changes (natural or as a result of human interaction) on ecosystems, including empirical pollution studies.

Geosciences (GES): Studies of Earth’s land processes, including mineralogy, plate tectonics, volcanism, and sedimentology.

Water Science (WAT): Studies of Earth’s water systems, including water resources, movement, distribution, and water quality. This field includes the occurrence, movement, abundance, distribution, and quality of subsurface waters and related geologic aspects of surface waters. Furthermore, it projects may also address water from the moment of precipitation until it evaporates into the atmosphere or is discharged into the ocean; for example, river systems and the impacts of flooding.

Other (OTH): Studies that cannot be assigned to one of the above subcategories. If the project involves multiple subcategories, the principal subcategory should be chosen instead of Other.