2017英特尔ISEF获奖作品摘要 数学 Intel Finalist Abstract Mathematics

获奖作品基本信息

年份	2017
学科	数学 Mathematics
国家/州	United States of America

获奖作品名称

A Participant-Specific Estimate of Expected Organ Quality in Kidney Paired Donation

获奖作品摘要

Patients with end-stage renal disease may receive a kidney transplant from a deceased or living donor. However, kidney transplants are time-sensitive and not all kidneys have the same expected lifetime. A tool that can tell doctors which kidney offers the greatest expected lifetime can increase a patient’s chance of survival. The Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) and the Living Kidney Donor Profile Index (LKDPI) are scoring systems used to describe the quality (expected lifetime) of a deceased-donor and living-donor kidneys, respectively. Currently, there exists no means to determine a patient’s expected outcomes in a kidney paired donation (KPD) system. This project creates a framework for computing the expected LKDPI, or quality, of the kidney that a patient in a KPD system would receive, as well as how long it will take to get matched in KPD. Estimates for a given pair were generated using Monte Carlo simulation based on 1) published donor/patient data describing the distribution of donors and patients that enter and exit a US KPD system and 2) the UNOS KPD matching policy. Computations for a single pair can take days, so a pre-processing scheme is necessary. Different sampling methods were created and compared based on total computational time and the error in calculating kidney quality and time to match. With accurate sampling, doctors can have instantaneous access to valuable insight regarding a patient’s expected outcome in a KPD system.

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高中生科研学术活动 英特尔 Intel ISEF 简介

英特尔国际科学与工程大奖赛，简称 "ISEF"，由美国 Society for Science and the Public（科学和公共服务协会）主办，英特尔公司冠名赞助，是全球规模最大、等级最高的中学生的科研科创赛事。ISEF 的学术活动学科包括了所有数学、自然科学、工程的全部领域和部分社会科学。ISEF 素有全球青少年科学学术活动的“世界杯”之美誉，旨在鼓励学生团队协作，开拓创新，长期专一深入地研究自己感兴趣的课题。

学科简介：数学 Mathematics

The study of the measurement, properties, and relationships of quantities and sets, using numbers and symbols. The deductive study of numbers, geometry, and various abstract constructs, or structures.

Subcategories:

Algebra (ALB): The study of algebraic operations and/or relations and the structures which arise from them. An example is given by (systems of) equations which involve polynomial functions of one or more variables.

Analysis (ANL): The study of infinitesimal processes in mathematics, typically involving the concept of a limit. This begins with differential and integral calculus, for functions of one or several variables, and includes differential equations.

Combinatorics, Graph Theory, and Game Theory (CGG): The study of combinatorial structures in mathematics, such as finite sets, graphs, and games, often with a view toward classification and/or enumeration.

Geometry and Topology (GEO): The study of the shape, size, and other properties of figures and spaces. Includes such subjects as Euclidean geometry, non-Euclidean geometries (spherical, hyperbolic, Riemannian, Lorentzian), and knot theory (classification of knots in 3-space).

Number Theory (NUM): The study of the arithmetic properties of integers and related topics such as cryptography.

Probability and Statistics (PRO): Mathematical study of random phenomena and the study of statistical tools used to analyze and interpret data.

Other (OTH): Studies that cannot be assigned to one of the above subcategories. If the project involves multiple subcategories, the principal subcategory should be chosen instead of Other.