意大利与西班牙的同与不同

IT IS TEMPTING to lump Europe’s two big southern countries together. Italians and Spaniards talk loudly, eat late, drive fast and slurp down life-prolonging quantities of tomatoes and olive oil (such, at least, are the clichés). They were cradles of European anarchism in the 19th century and fascism in the 20th century; brushing dictatorship under the carpet before embracing Europe in the post-war years. During the euro-zone crisis from 2009 they were two components of the ugly acronym “PIGS” (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) denoting particularly indebted economies. Today once more they are being mentioned in the same breath.

人们很容易将南洲两大国家混为一谈。意大利人和西班牙人说话声音很大，吃饭很晚，开车速度也快，大口大口吃能长寿的西红柿和橄榄油(至少大家都这么说)。意大利和西班牙是19世纪欧洲无政府主义和20世纪法西斯主义的发祥地；在二战后多年后，他们扫除了独裁统治后，才融入了欧洲。在2009年的欧元区危机期间，它们是“猪”（PIGS）(葡萄牙、意大利、希腊、西班牙)这个丑陋的缩略词的成员国家——指的是负债特别严重的经济体。如今，他们两个国家又放到一起相提并论。

Italian volatility appears to be arriving on the Iberian peninsula. Spain’s once boringly bi-party politics has become a five-party kaleidoscope with the emergence of the hard-left Podemos, the centre-right Ciudadanos and most recently the hard-right Vox. It is increasingly polarised by battles over Catalan independence. Last summer Pedro Sánchez’s centre-left Socialists (PSOE), backed by Catalan nationalists, toppled a centre-right People’s Party (PP) government. But the Catalans refused to back the new government’s budget, forcing Mr Sánchez to call an election for April 28th. A right-wing coalition of PP, Ciudadanos and Vox (which would surely inflame Catalan nationalism) or a deadlock and new elections are the most likely outcomes.

意大利的动荡似乎正波及伊比利亚半岛。随着极左的Podemos（意为“我们可以”）、中右的公民党以及最近的极右Vox的出现，西班牙曾经沉闷的两党政治变成了一个五党混杂的万花筒。加泰罗尼亚独立之争使其日益分化。去年夏天，佩德罗•桑切斯(Pedro Sanchez)领导的加泰罗尼亚民族主义者支持的中左翼社会党(PSOE)推翻了中右翼人民党(PP)政府。但是，加泰罗尼亚人拒绝支持新政府的预算，迫使桑切斯在4月28日举行选举。人民党、公民党和Vox组成的右翼联盟(这肯定会激起加泰罗尼亚的民族主义)、僵局和新选举是最有可能的结果。

It can ill-afford either. The country’s recovery belies the urgency of pension, education and labour reforms, as well as nagging corruption and a rise in trans-Mediterranean migration. Years of political instability would leave these priorities unattended. Eurocrats note that Spain last year missed more deadlines for implementing EU legislation than any other member state. The sudden emergence of Vox and its embrace by other parties (it props up a PP-led government in Andalusia) evokes at once the country’s Francoist past and alarming parallels with Italy. There, the Northern League, once a peripheral Vox-like party, now dominates a chaotic, Eurosceptic coalition that is spooking markets as decades of negligible growth make its debt pile teeter.

这些结果都是难以承担。西班牙的经济复苏掩盖了养老金、教育和劳动力改革的紧迫性，以及挥之不去的腐败和跨地中海而来的移民人数的增加问题。多年的政治动荡将使这些优先事项无人问津。欧盟官员指出，西班牙在去年是欧盟成员国中没有批准欧盟立法最多的。Vox的突然出现和其他党派的支持(支持人民党领导的安达卢西亚政府)立刻唤起了这个国家过去的佛朗哥主义，并与意大利惊人的相似。在那里，北方联盟(Northern League)曾经是一个类似于Vox的边缘政党，如今成为一个混乱不堪、持欧洲怀疑论的联盟主导力量。在数十年微不足道的增长使意大利债务摇摇欲坠的情况下，这样的执政联盟让市场感到恐慌不已。

Yet despite all that, fundamental differences to do with national metabolism, lost on some northern European officials, separate the two countries. Italy is shackled by conservatism and stasis. Its euro-zone crisis was (and is) the mild acceleration of a long-term national slump. GDP has barely grown since the late 1990s, making a debt mountain accumulated in earlier times unsustainable. Spain meanwhile hurtles forward, having grown by almost half during that period. Its euro-zone misery was more sharp and dramatic: a hyperactive construction boom raced off a cliff during the banking crisis, causing a spike in unemployment.

然而，尽管如此，与国家发展有关的根本差异(一些北欧官员忽略了这一点)让这两国各不相同。保守主义和经济停滞不前束缚了意大利的发展。它出现的欧元区危机曾是(现在也是)国家长期衰退的温和加速。自上世纪90年代末以来，意大利的GDP几乎没有增长，这使得早期积累的大量债务难以为继。与此同时，西班牙也在快速前进，同期增长了近一半。西班牙的欧元区危机苦难更为尖锐和剧烈：在银行业爆发危机期间，极度活跃的建筑热潮激流猛退，导致失业率飙升。

The difference between slow-metabolism Italy and fast-metabolism Spain goes beyond economic statistics. Decline has been the defining Italian experience of the past decades, so the new looks threatening and unwelcome there. But Spaniards have experienced the past decades as a time of rising prosperity and freedom after the drab Franco years. They are neophiles, willing to try anything that smacks of the future. The contrast between the two countries is that between Spain’s urban spaces, which gleam with futuristic architecture and public works, and Italy’s peeling cities; between Spaniards’ openness to social change and Italians’ conservatism; between the existential melancholy of Paolo Sorrentino’s films and the freneticism of Pedro Almodóvar.

发展缓慢的意大利和快速发展的西班牙之间的差异不仅仅在于经济统计数据。过去几十年，衰落一直是意大利的标志性经历，因此，新面貌既有威胁性，且不受欢迎。然而，西班牙人在经历了佛朗哥时代的沉闷之后，在过去的几十年里经历了一个日益繁荣和自由的时代。他们是新狂热分子，愿意尝试任何有未来味道的东西。两国之间的对比是西班牙的城市空间(闪烁着未来主义建筑和公共工程的光芒)和意大利剥落的城市之间的对比；在西班牙人对社会变革的开放与意大利人的保守主义之间：介于保罗·索伦蒂诺(Paolo Sorrentino)电影中的存在主义忧郁与佩德罗·阿尔莫多瓦(Pedro Almodovar)的狂躁之间。

A fast national metabolism has its downsides. Some of Spain’s shiny new infrastructure is wasteful and some Spaniards, especially in rural areas, resent the pace of change and are turning to Vox in protest. But it does also make Spain’s descent into reactionary Italy-style stagnation improbable. For one thing, its economy is fitter. Spain had a deeper euro-crisis but recovered faster, thanks to drastic economic reforms and spending cuts. Exports and FDI surged. Its GDP per person in purchasing-power terms overtook that of Italy in 2017 and is forecast to be 7% higher within five years. Heavy investment in roads and high-speed rail has made Spain’s infrastructure the tenth best in the world, says the World Economic Forum. Italy is 21st.

一个国家的快速发展也有其缺点。西班牙一些崭新的新基础设施纯粹是浪费，而一些西班牙人，尤其是在农村地区，对改革的步伐感到不满，在抗议中转向Vox。但这也使得西班牙不太可能陷入意大利式的保守性经济停滞。首先，西班牙的经济更加健康。西班牙经历了欧元危机更为深重，但由于剧烈的经济改革和开支削减，复苏速度更快。出口和外国直接投资激增。2017年，西班牙的人均国内生产总值(GDP)的购买力超过了意大利，预计五年内将增长7%。世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)表示，对道路和高速铁路的巨额投资，使西班牙的基础设施在全球排名第10，而意大利则位于第21位。

A sunny country阳光国家

All of which translates into an outward-looking optimism. Mr Sánchez, who wants Spain to become a third partner in the Franco-German alliance, is particularly pro-EU, but the PP’s Pablo Casado admires Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats in Germany and Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos brandishes EU flags at his rallies. According to Eurobarometer, 68% of Spaniards view the EU positively compared with 36% of Italians. Vox directs its anti-establishment ire not at the EU so much as at feminists and separatist Catalans.

所有这些都转化为一种向外看的乐观主义。桑切斯希望西班牙成为法德同盟的第三个伙伴，他特别支持欧盟，但人民党主席帕布罗•卡萨多赞赏安格拉•默克尔领导的德国基督教民主党，以及公民党的阿尔伯特•里维拉在集会上挥舞欧盟旗帜。根据民调机构欧洲晴雨表的调查，68%的西班牙人对欧盟持积极态度，而意大利人的这一比例为36%。Vox的反建制怒火与其说指向欧盟，不如说是指向女权主义者和加泰罗尼亚分裂主义者。

It also talks about immigration, but less than other European right-populist parties. Why? The foreign-born share of the population rose from 3% to 14% in the two decades to 2008, but Spaniards are more likely than any other EU population to declare themselves comfortable in social interactions with migrants (83% compared with 40% of Italians). Despite rising immigration from Africa and new efforts to improve border security, none of Spain’s main parties proposes to close ports or indulges in Mr Salvini’s brand of anti-migrant posturing. In other areas, too, Spaniards have left the chauvinism of the Franco years behind; a broad consensus backs gender equality and gay rights (equal marriage was introduced in 2005, behind only Belgium and the Netherlands).

移民问题也有所涉及，但比欧洲其他右翼民粹主义政党要少。原因为何? 在2008年前的20年里，在国外出生的人口比例从3%上升到14%，但是西班牙人比任何其他欧盟国家的人都更有可能宣称自己在与移民的社会交往中感到自在(83%，而意大利人的比例为40%)。尽管来自非洲的移民人数不断增加，并为改善边境安全做出了新的努力，西班牙的主要政党都没有提议关闭港口，也没有纵容萨尔维尼的反移民姿态。在其他领域，西班牙人也抛弃了佛朗哥时代的沙文主义； 广泛的共识支持性别平等和同性恋权利(2005年引入了平等婚姻，仅晚于比利时和荷兰)。

Years of political chaos could threaten this picture. But if that applies to Spain, it applies to other European countries too, where the same fragmentation is taking place. Last year’s change of government, though fraught, was procedurally exemplary and proof that Spain’s young constitutional order now has at least the maturity of its western European neighbours. It is Italy, with its decades-old fractiousness and stagnation, that looks more out of kilter. Spain is different, goes the old saying. But Italy is more so.

多年的政治混乱可能会威胁到这一局面。不过，如果这在西班牙出现的话，也会在其它欧洲国家出现，因为同样的分裂正在出现。去年的政府换届虽然令人担忧，但在程序上堪称典范，证明了西班牙年轻的宪法秩序至少已达到其西欧邻国的成熟程度。意大利有着几十年的动荡和停滞，看起来更不平衡。俗话说，西班牙就是不一样。不过，意大利更是如此。