经济学人1月26日刊|慢速全球化（上）

A new pattern of world commerce is becoming clearer—as are its costs

When America took a protectionist turn two years ago, it provoked dark warnings about the miseries of the 1930s. Today those ominous predictions look misplaced. Yes, China is slowing. And, yes, Western firms exposed to China, such as Apple, have been clobbered. But global growth in 2018 was decent, unemployment fell and profits rose. In November President Donald Trump signed a trade pact with Mexico and Canada. If talks over the next month lead to a deal with Xi Jinping, markets will conclude that the trade war is political theatre designed to squeeze a few concessions from China, not blow up commerce.

Such complacency is mistaken. Today’s trade tensions are compounding a shift that has been under way since the financial crisis of 2008-09. Cross-border investment, trade, bank loans and supply chains have all been shrinking or stagnating relative to world gdp (see Briefing). Globalisation has given way to a new era of sluggishness. Adapting a term coined by a Dutch writer, we call it “slowbalisation”.

The golden age of globalisation, in 1990-2010, was something to behold. Commerce soared as the cost of shifting goods in ships and planes fell, phone calls got cheaper, tariffs were cut and finance liberalised. Business went gangbusters, as firms set up around the world, investors roamed and consumers shopped in supermarkets with enough choice to impress Phileas Fogg.

Globalisation has slowed from light speed to a snail’s pace in the past decade for several reasons. The cost of moving goods has stopped falling. Multinational firms have found that global sprawl burns money and that local rivals often eat them alive. Activity is shifting towards services, which are harder to sell across borders: scissors can be exported in 20ft-containers, but hair stylists cannot. And Chinese manufacturing has become more self-reliant, so needs to import fewer parts.

This is the fragile backdrop to Mr Trump’s trade war. Tariffs tend to get the most attention. If America ratchets up duties on China in March, as threatened, the average tariff rate on American imports will rise to 3.4%, its highest for 40 years. (Most firms plan to pass the cost on to customers.) Less glaring, but just as pernicious, is that rules of commerce are being rewritten around the world. The principle that investors and firms should be treated equally regardless of their  is being ditched.

Evidence for this is everywhere. Geopolitical rivalry is gripping the tech industry, which accounts for about 20% of world stockmarkets. Rules on privacy, data and espionage are splintering. Tax systems are being bent to patriotic ends—in America to prod firms to repatriate capital, in Europe to target Silicon Valley. America and the European Union have new regimes for vetting foreign investment, while China, despite its bluster, has no in- tention of giving foreign firms a level playing-field. America has weaponised the power it gets from running the world’s dollar- payments system, to punish foreigners such as Huawei (see Business section). Even humdrum areas such as accounting and antitrust are fragmenting.

第一段

When America took a protectionist turn two years ago, it provoked dark warnings about the miseries of the 1930s. Today those ominous predictions look misplaced. Yes, China is slowing. And, yes, Western firms exposed to China, such as Apple, have been clobbered. But global growth in 2018 was decent, unemployment fell and profits rose. In November President Donald Trump signed a trade pact with Mexico and Canada. If talks over the next month lead to a deal with Xi Jinping, markets will conclude that the trade war is political theatre designed to squeeze a few concessions from China, not blow up commerce.

【新词习得】

1. protectionist [prə'tɛkʃənɪst]：n. 贸易保护主义者adj. 贸易保护主义的；保护贸易论的
2. ominous['ɑmɪnəs]：adj.不详的；预兆的
3. clobber ['klɑbɚ]：v.击倒；痛打
4. political theatre：政治秀

【实用词组&翻译】

1. When America took a protectionist turn two years ago, it provoked dark warnings about the miseries of the 1930s.翻译：两年前美国开始贸易保护的时候，就激起了关于20世纪30年代灾难的悲惨警告。1929年至1933年之间美国发生大萧条，是波及整个资本主义世界的经济危机，包括美国、英国、法国、德国和日本等资本主义国家。
2. And, yes, Western firms exposed to China, such as Apple, have been clobbered.翻译：的确，像苹果等与中国有贸易往来的公司都遭到重击。

第二段

Such complacency is mistaken. Today’s trade tensions are compounding a shift that has been under way since the financial crisis of 2008-09. Cross-border investment, trade, bank loans and supply chains have all been shrinking or stagnating relative to world GDP (see Briefing). Globalisation has given way to a new era of sluggishness. Adapting a term coined by a Dutch writer, we call it “slowbalisation”.

【新词习得】

1. complacency [kəm'plesnsi]： n. 自满
2. cross-border investment：跨境投资
3. sluggishness['slʌgiʃnis]：n. 迟缓；惰性；萧条
4. coin：v.杜撰
5. Dutch[dʌtʃ]：adj. n.荷兰人的；荷兰语的；adv. 费用平摊地；各自付账地 go Dutch with sb 与某人AA/Dutch treat AA制

【实用词组&翻译】

1. Today’s trade tensions are compounding a shift that has been under way since the financial crisis of 2008-09.翻译：如今的贸易紧张参杂了2008-09年的金融危机就开始了的经济转向。

第三段

The golden age of globalisation, in 1990-2010, was something to behold. Commerce soared as the cost of shifting goods in ships and planes fell, phone calls got cheaper, tariffs were cut and finance liberalised. Business went gangbusters, as firms set up around the world, investors roamed and consumers shopped in supermarkets with enough choice to impress Phileas Fogg.

【新词习得】

1. behold[bɪ'hold]：v.看；注视
2. gangbusters['gæn,bʌstɚ]：adj.热情洋溢的
3. Phileas Fogg[tɛm'pɛstʃuəs]：斐利亚·福克，儒勒·凡尔纳小说《八十天环游地球》中的主人公，利用80天时间和仆人路路通环游世界

第四段

Globalisation has slowed from light speed to a snail’s pace in the past decade for several reasons. The cost of moving goods has stopped falling. Multinational firms have found that global sprawl burns money and that local rivals often eat them alive. Activity is shifting towards services, which are harder to sell across borders: scissors can be exported in 20ft-containers, but hair stylists cannot. And Chinese manufacturing has become more self-reliant, so needs to import fewer parts.

【新词习得】

1. 20ft-container：20英尺的集装箱
2. self-reliant['selfri'laiənt]：adj. 自力更生的；自恃的

【实用词组&翻译】

1. Globalisation has slowed from light speed to a snail’s pace in the past decade for several reasons.翻译：过去十年全球化的发展速度从光速到龟速有几个原因。

第五段

This is the fragile backdrop to Mr Trump’s trade war. Tariffs tend to get the most attention. If America ratchets up duties on China in March, as threatened, the average tariff rate on American imports will rise to 3.4%, its highest for 40 years. (Most firms plan to pass the cost on to customers.) Less glaring, but just as pernicious, is that rules of commerce are being rewritten around the world. The principle that investors and firms should be treated equally regardless of their  is being ditched.

【新词习得】

1. backdrop ['bæk'drɑp]：n.背景
2. ratchets：倾向于；易于
3. ratchet ['rætʃɪt]：n.棘轮；棘齿 vt. 安装棘轮于；松脱
4. ratchet up：逐渐升高；略微提高
5. glaring['ɡlɛrɪŋ]：adj.耀眼的；炯炯有神的
6. pernicious[pɚ'nɪʃəs]：adj. 有害的；恶性的；致命的；险恶的
7. ditched[dɪtʃ]：v.丢弃

【实用词组&翻译】

1. Less glaring, but just as pernicious, is that rules of commerce are being rewritten around the world.翻译：没那么引人注目，但同样危险的是全球的商业规则正在被改写。

第六段

Evidence for this is everywhere. Geopolitical rivalry is gripping the tech industry, which accounts for about 20% of world stockmarkets. Rules on privacy, data and espionage are splintering. Tax systems are being bent to patriotic ends—in America to prod firms to repatriate capital, in Europe to target Silicon Valley. America and the European Union have new regimes for vetting foreign investment, while China, despite its bluster, has no intention of giving foreign firms a level playing-field. America has weaponised the power it gets from running the world’s dollar-payments system, to punish foreigners such as Huawei (see Business section). Even humdrum areas such as accounting and antitrust are fragmenting.

【新词习得】

1.geopolitical[,dʒiopə'litɪkl]：adj. 地理政治学的

2.rivalry['raɪvlri]：n.竞争；对抗

3.espionage['ɛspɪənɑʒ]：n. 间谍；间谍活动；刺探

4.splinter['splɪntɚ]：n. 碎片；微小的东西；极瘦的人v. 分裂；裂成碎片

5.bend to：屈从于

6.patriotic[ˌpeɪtrɪˈɑtɪk]：adj.爱国的 patriotic ends 处于爱国的目的

7.prod[prɑd]：n.刺针 v.刺；捅

8.repatriate[,ri'petrɪet]：v.遣返 repatriate capital 调资回国

9.regime [re'ʒim]：n.政权，政体；社会制度；管理体制

10.vetting：n.审查

11.bluster ['blʌstɚ]：v.咆哮；气势汹汹的说 n.怒号；恫吓

12.humdrum ['hʌmdrʌm]：adj.v.n.单调；乏味

13.antitrust [,æntɪ'trʌst]：adj.反垄断的

14.fragment['fræɡmənt]：v.碎片化

【实用词组&翻译】

1. America and the European Union have new regimes for vetting foreign investment, while China, despite its bluster, has no intention of giving foreign firms a level playing-field.翻译：美国和欧盟对于境外投资有一套新的审核制度，而中国尽管嘴上说得好听，也无意给外国企业一个公平的竞争平台。